1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
|
name: Quill the prediction clerk
description: Quill wears a brass eye-shade and keeps one finger on a chalk rail of shifting odds.
protected: true
unique: true
idle_descriptions:
- rubs out a price and writes a new one
- taps the odds board with a chalk stick
- glances from the board to a ledger and back
talk:
nodes:
start:
messages:
- Welcome to the Prediction Exchange. Every board here asks a real-world question, and
every question has outcomes you can back with credits.
- A winning share pays 100 credits. A losing share pays nothing. The house quotes the
other side of every trade, so you never need another player at the counter.
options:
- goto: trade
text: How do I place a prediction?
- goto: prices
text: How do the prices work?
- goto: resolve
text: What happens when a market resolves?
- goto: goodbye
text: Just looking, thank you.
trade:
messages:
- 'Use predictions at the counter, then browse the numbered markets. Pick one with
its number to see the odds and the resolution rules.'
- 'To buy, type buy SHARES OUTCOME — for example, buy 10 yes, or buy 10 natus vincere.
Outcome names and numbers both work, and a partial name is enough if it is unambiguous.'
- 'To close a position early, type sell CONTRACT from your active list. Your open
contracts and their profit or loss live under active; finished ones under closed.'
options:
- goto: prices
text: And the prices?
- goto: resolve
text: What about resolved markets?
- goto: start
text: Back to the beginning.
prices:
messages:
- Each share trades between 0 and 100 credits, roughly tracking the crowd's chance of
that outcome. A 30-credit share is an implied 30 percent chance.
- The board moves as the world moves. Each share's buy price rounds up and its sell
price rounds down to whole credits, so there are no half-credits at the counter.
- Prices refresh whenever someone uses the counter. If the feed is unavailable we close
the desk rather than trade on stale numbers.
options:
- goto: trade
text: How do I trade again?
- goto: resolve
text: What happens when it resolves?
- goto: start
text: Back to the beginning.
resolve:
messages:
- When a market closes, every contract resolves on its own. A winning share becomes
worth 100 credits and a losing share becomes worth nothing.
- The winnings wait here at the counter until you type collect. You can read a market's
fine print with rules before you buy, and closed shows everything you have settled.
options:
- goto: trade
text: How do I buy shares?
- goto: start
text: Back to the beginning.
goodbye:
messages:
- Good luck. The board is always moving, and there is no rush to trade a quiet market.
|
