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name: predictions
aliases: [prediction market, prediction counter, prediction exchange, use predictions]
category: Interaction
related: [casino, bank]
description: |
Prediction Exchange
In the casino, enter the Prediction Exchange east of the vestibule. Use
predictions, use market, or use exchange at the counter. The commands
below work only inside the exchange. Type stop (or leave/exit) to step
away; your contracts remain invested.
N / view N Open a numbered market
markets Browse popular eligible markets
next / prev Turn market or contract pages
find WORDS Search the popular-market selection
buy SHARES OUTCOME Buy outcome shares at the live quote.
OUTCOME is a number or name: buy 10 yes
active Your open contracts, valued and marked
closed Your sold, resolved and collected contracts
N / holding N Read contract N's market from active/closed
sell N Sell all shares of contract N to the house
collect Withdraw winnings from resolved contracts
back Return to the market selection
refresh / table Refresh the current screen
look Room, current market screen and casino hints
rules Selected market's resolution rules;
general game rules when browsing
help predictions How to play
stop Leave the counter
Example: use market, then 1, then buy 10 yes buys ten shares of the
"Yes" outcome. buy 10 2 also works. Example: sell 3 sells all shares of
contract 3. Sales close the whole contract; buy separate contracts if
you want to sell in smaller portions.
Markets are listed in one shared table: number, question, and a single
two-sided odds bar with a percent at each end. Unicode frames, bars and
line-history graphs follow your unicode option; ASCII mode substitutes
plain characters. Colors follow your color mode. Hints use the standard
casino command menu and casino_hints option. Look shows the room followed
by the live counter and hints, like other casino games. The normal
what/verbs commands also list available commands. Resolution rules are
shown only when requested with rules. History plots the first outcome's
available prices over the past week; new markets may be empty.
All contracts use fictional carried credits. There is no real-money
trading, wallet, external account, or player order book. The house uses
Polymarket's indicative outcome prices. Winning shares pay 100 credits;
losing shares pay nothing. When a market closes, each contract resolves
automatically: a winning share is worth 100 credits and a losing share 0.
Resolved winnings wait at the counter until you type collect. Each share's
buy price rounds up and sell price rounds down to a whole credit BEFORE
multiplying by quantity: a 42.1-credit quote buys at 43 and sells at 42
credits per share. No partial credits or fees. Maximum 50 active contracts;
1-10,000 shares per purchase.
Prices update only on interaction, with no background polling. A failed
request closes the counter for that interaction: no stale-price trading.
Leaving the interface during an update cancels the pending operation.
Closed, paused, expired markets and sports past a supplied start time
cannot trade. Finalized outcomes settle on your next interaction, even
after reconnecting. Ambiguous or disputed resolutions wait without payout.
Open values are indicative, not guaranteed sale proceeds; closed values
are actual proceeds. Browsing selects up to 100 popular markets, while
contracts outside that selection remain on your active list.
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