name: predictions
aliases: [prediction market, prediction counter, prediction exchange, use predictions]
category: Interaction
related: [casino, bank]
description: |
  Prediction Exchange

  In the casino, enter the Prediction Exchange east of the vestibule. Use
  predictions, use market, or use exchange at the counter. The commands
  below work only inside the exchange. Type stop (or leave/exit) to step
  away; your contracts remain invested.

  N / view N                  Open a numbered market
  markets                     Browse popular eligible markets
  next / prev                 Turn market or contract pages
  find WORDS                  Search the popular-market selection
  buy SHARES OUTCOME          Buy outcome shares at the live quote.
                              OUTCOME is a number or name: buy 10 yes
  active                      Your open contracts, valued and marked
  closed                      Your sold, resolved and collected contracts
  N / holding N               Read contract N's market from active/closed
  sell N                      Sell all shares of contract N to the house
  collect                     Withdraw winnings from resolved contracts
  back                        Return to the market selection
  refresh / table             Refresh the current screen
  look                        Room, current market screen and casino hints
  rules                       Selected market's resolution rules;
                              general game rules when browsing
  help predictions            How to play
  stop                        Leave the counter

  Example: use market, then 1, then buy 10 yes buys ten shares of the
  "Yes" outcome. buy 10 2 also works. Example: sell 3 sells all shares of
  contract 3. Sales close the whole contract; buy separate contracts if
  you want to sell in smaller portions.

  Markets are listed in one shared table: number, question, and a single
  two-sided odds bar with a percent at each end. Unicode frames, bars and
  line-history graphs follow your unicode option; ASCII mode substitutes
  plain characters. Colors follow your color mode. Hints use the standard
  casino command menu and casino_hints option. Look shows the room followed
  by the live counter and hints, like other casino games. The normal
  what/verbs commands also list available commands. Resolution rules are
  shown only when requested with rules. History plots the first outcome's
  available prices over the past week; new markets may be empty.

  All contracts use fictional carried credits. There is no real-money
  trading, wallet, external account, or player order book. The house uses
  Polymarket's indicative outcome prices. Winning shares pay 100 credits;
  losing shares pay nothing. When a market closes, each contract resolves
  automatically: a winning share is worth 100 credits and a losing share 0.
  Resolved winnings wait at the counter until you type collect. Each share's
  buy price rounds up and sell price rounds down to a whole credit BEFORE
  multiplying by quantity: a 42.1-credit quote buys at 43 and sells at 42
  credits per share. No partial credits or fees. Maximum 50 active contracts;
  1-10,000 shares per purchase.

  Prices update only on interaction, with no background polling. A failed
  request closes the counter for that interaction: no stale-price trading.
  Leaving the interface during an update cancels the pending operation.

  Closed, paused, expired markets and sports past a supplied start time
  cannot trade. Finalized outcomes settle on your next interaction, even
  after reconnecting. Ambiguous or disputed resolutions wait without payout.
  Open values are indicative, not guaranteed sale proceeds; closed values
  are actual proceeds. Browsing selects up to 100 popular markets, while
  contracts outside that selection remain on your active list.